Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,245
2 New Jersey 19,109
3 Rhode Island 15,606
4 Massachusetts 15,587
5 District of Columbia 14,302
6 Connecticut 12,873
7 Delaware 11,139
8 Louisiana 11,122
9 Illinois 10,991
10 Maryland 10,851
11 Nebraska 9,352
12 Iowa 8,389
13 Arizona 8,022
14 Mississippi 7,693
15 South Dakota 7,181
16 Virginia 6,911
17 Michigan 6,846
18 Pennsylvania 6,817
19 Indiana 6,530
20 Alabama 6,342
21 Georgia 6,082
22 Minnesota 5,940
23 Utah 5,756
24 Arkansas 5,526
25 Colorado 5,361
26 Tennessee 5,274
27 North Carolina 5,227
28 New Mexico 5,168
29 South Carolina 5,168
30 California 4,834
31 Florida 4,818
32 Nevada 4,564
33 Wisconsin 4,378
34 North Dakota 4,364
35 Kansas 4,345
36 Texas 4,301
37 New Hampshire 4,097
38 Washington 4,041
39 Ohio 3,946
40 Kentucky 3,205
41 Missouri 3,119
42 Oklahoma 2,786
43 Idaho 2,468
44 Maine 2,227
45 Wyoming 2,166
46 Puerto Rico 2,093
47 Vermont 1,865
48 Oregon 1,726
49 West Virginia 1,446
50 Alaska 1,237
51 Montana 695
52 Hawaii 569

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 375
2 Mississippi 210
3 South Carolina 183
4 Arkansas 169
5 Louisiana 158
6 Florida 150
7 Texas 150
8 California 136
9 Utah 133
10 Georgia 122
11 Nevada 116
12 Alabama 105
13 North Carolina 101
14 Iowa 96
15 Tennessee 87
16 Oklahoma 83
17 Idaho 75
18 Nebraska 66
19 New Mexico 64
20 Rhode Island 61
21 Virginia 60
22 Minnesota 59
23 Maryland 57
24 Washington 57
25 Delaware 56
26 Missouri 53
27 Ohio 53
28 District of Columbia 51
29 Kansas 50
30 Oregon 48
31 South Dakota 48
32 Wisconsin 48
33 Illinois 45
34 Wyoming 43
35 Indiana 41
36 Pennsylvania 41
37 Kentucky 39
38 New Jersey 33
39 Colorado 31
40 New York 31
41 North Dakota 30
42 Alaska 27
43 Massachusetts 24
44 Puerto Rico 23
45 Michigan 21
46 Connecticut 17
47 West Virginia 17
48 Montana 14
49 Maine 13
50 New Hampshire 12
51 Vermont 9
52 Hawaii 3

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,591
2 New Jersey 1,457
3 Connecticut 1,199
4 Massachusetts 1,144
5 Rhode Island 855
6 District of Columbia 760
7 Louisiana 674
8 Michigan 612
9 Illinois 546
10 Delaware 517
11 Maryland 511
12 Pennsylvania 508
13 Indiana 381
14 Mississippi 332
15 Colorado 289
16 Minnesota 252
17 New Hampshire 252
18 Georgia 249
19 Ohio 233
20 New Mexico 227
21 Iowa 218
22 Arizona 192
23 Virginia 192
24 Alabama 176
25 Washington 168
26 Missouri 161
27 Nevada 159
28 Florida 150
29 California 142
30 Nebraska 135
31 South Carolina 130
32 Wisconsin 128
33 Kentucky 125
34 North Carolina 121
35 North Dakota 110
36 Oklahoma 93
37 South Dakota 93
38 Kansas 89
39 Vermont 89
40 Arkansas 78
41 Tennessee 78
42 Texas 77
43 Maine 75
44 Idaho 60
45 West Virginia 51
46 Utah 50
47 Puerto Rico 46
48 Oregon 45
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 19
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 23
2 Mississippi 5
3 Idaho 3
4 New Jersey 3
5 Rhode Island 3
6 Arizona 2
7 Connecticut 2
8 District of Columbia 2
9 Illinois 2
10 Louisiana 2
11 Maryland 2
12 Massachusetts 2
13 Nebraska 2
14 New York 2
15 Alabama 1
16 Arkansas 1
17 California 1
18 Colorado 1
19 Florida 1
20 Georgia 1
21 Indiana 1
22 Kentucky 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 New Mexico 1
25 North Carolina 1
26 Ohio 1
27 Pennsylvania 1
28 South Carolina 1
29 Virginia 1
30 Alaska 0
31 Hawaii 0
32 Iowa 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Maine 0
35 Michigan 0
36 Missouri 0
37 Montana 0
38 Nevada 0
39 New Hampshire 0
40 North Dakota 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Texas 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 130,096 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,204 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,736 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 85,117 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,545 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 11,897 225 92
Richland South Carolina 6,725 538 82
Orange California 3,381 1113 64
York South Carolina 3,153 1177 62
Pierce Washington 2,901 1262 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,391 5 99
Richland South Carolina 192 653 79
Davidson Tennessee 141 800 74
Pierce Washington 103 979 68
Orange California 87 1079 65
York South Carolina 39 1502 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons